This study represents an initial attempt to assess patterns of displacement related to droughts in selected countries of the Horn of Africa, specifically the border regions of Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia.

The analysis is based on a mathematical model, IDMC’s innovative Pastoralist Livelihoods and Displacement Simulator, a real-time tool that estimates displacement outcomes based on interactions between climate and human-induced factors. The study explores several scenarios to identify potential impacts of climate change and demographic trends and to test the effectiveness of measures to prevent and respond to droughts. Therefore, the primary intended audience for this paper are those in national and regional governments responsible for reducing and managing disaster risks – drought in particular – and for protecting the rights of internally displaced persons (IDPs).